Sunday, February 26, 2012

Laura Sees Movies: Oscar Predictions 2011

It's a wonderful night for Oscar!



It's that time of year. Usually my favorite time of year but unfortunately I did not get out to see as many movies as I'd hoped and the movies I did excitedly run out too did not made the cut this year. However, I still know the drill and it's always fun to make my predictions so here we go. I've only included the major award categories to keep this post from being as long as the show itself.

Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:


Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"

Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"

Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"


Who I think will win: Melissa McCarthy


Who I want to win: Melissa McCarthy

This is the only category I am making  a wildcard guess in because this is traditionally the academy's wildcard category. The most unpredictable wins are often for the actress in a supporting role statue (although supporting actor can be an unexpected win as well) and the one category I always take a risky guess with is this one. Also might I add that I would just LOVE to see Melissa McCarthy win, her performance in Bridesmaids is one to be remembered and it would be delightful to see her honored for it.

However, it is possible that I'm wrong and that Octavia Spencer will win. I hated The Help but I would never disparage her performance, she is an excellent actress. I'd also like to give a shout out to vegan nominee Jessica Chastain. You rock Jessica!


Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:


Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"

Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

Nick Nolte, "Warrior"

Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"


Who I think will win: Christopher Plummer


Who I want to win: Kenneth Branagh

Christopher Plummer seems on track to take this award and honestly, his performance in Beginners aside, he deserves it. Considering he is widely regarded as the finest actor without an Oscar nod this could very well be his time and it would be a delight to see him take the statue.

I'm rooting for Branagh because I thought he was breathtaking as Olivier. Particularly because I felt he honestly expressed his own self doubt as a movie star through this role as he simultaneously honored this man with his performance. It was hilarious to see Olivier starring and directing this film within the film, something Branagh is known and often mocked for doing. A wonderfully insightful performances, definitely one of my favorites this year. My Week With Marilyn was also one of my favorite movies this year, I'm a huge Marilyn fan and I just loved the story and how they told it.


Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees:


Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"

George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"


Who I think will win: Jean Dujardin


Who I want to win: Ryan Gosling

Despite some buzz (and by buzz I mean Brett Easton-Ellis drunk tweeting) that Clooney is getting a lot of votes, the real winner this year is The Artist and I think Dujardin's performance is one of those secured wins for this film. He's truly the star of this movie while only delivering one line. That is the sort of performance that wins awards. I can only hope Uggie will join him onstage for the acceptance speech.

I want Ryan Gosling to be nominated and then to win for his performance in Drive. But whatever. Let's just look at this instead. 


Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees:


Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"

Viola Davis, "The Help"

Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"

Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"


Who I think will win: Meryl Streep


Who I want to win: Viola Davis

This one is tough for me because I honestly do believe there is a 50/50 shot at this category. Viola Davis could easily walk away with the win here but something about that performance in The Iron Lady makes me hesitate. Unfortunately, the structure of The Help does not offer the brilliant Ms. Davis much support either as she is arguably not the protagonist of the film. I was frankly surprised to see her in the Best Actress categories as I fully expected her to be nominated in supporting. Honestly I do believe if she was up for supporting she would take it in a landslide. However, against Meryl in one of her most insane performances, I think it's a tougher call. But I'm here to make predictions and I have to put my money somewhere so I'm putting it on Streep. The odds are rough in this category though so don't be surprised if I'm wrong. I'll be happy if I am.


Directing
The Nominees:


Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"

Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"


Who I think will win: Michel Hazanavicius


Who I want to win: Michel Hazanavicius

The Artist was not my favorite movie last year but it is a great movie. The execution, how we saw it, how it came out on film, and primarily how it was directed, is why. It is not a great story, nor is it a format we've never seen before. But to reboot a format that is long retired, and make it feel fresh yet classic, is a feat indeed. And as I've said before, I fully expect The Artist to be the movie carrying the broom stick Sunday night.


Best Picture
The Nominees:

"War Horse"

"The Artist"

"Moneyball"

"The Descendants"

"The Tree of Life"

"Midnight in Paris"

"The Help"

"Hugo"

"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"


Who I think will win: The Artist


Who I want to win: The Artist

I'm laying all my cards out and my bet is with The Artist this year. I also think they will take Original Score, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Art Direction. It's a good movie and a safe choice for Hollywood. While seemingly different and adventurous, it is still a classic love story that any audience member can enjoy. Not unlike last year's winner, no one will mind watching this flick take home all the gold, and everyone can shrug and say, yep, it was great. Yay.

Honestly given the list of nominations, I think The Artist deserves it. There are other great movies on this list but this one is certainly the most unique and refreshing. I do wish Oscar would grow some balls and honor some darker stories, but given our economy and general social climate it's no surprise we've been embracing uplifting films the last few years. 

I apologize if these predictions are a little boring, as I realize I've chosen The Artist for the majority of them but I honestly believe it's going to take the majority of the categories and I'm trying to help you win the pool here.

Personally, I am super bummed there was nothing for Drive, especially for Albert Brooks (who I actually loved, believe it or not, more than Ryan Gosling). There are performances I was riveted by in Like Crazy, Weekend, Young Adult, and Cedar Rapids as well. My absolute favorite movie from last year, The Future, nobody saw, and there are a bunch of movies that I still need and want to see such as Carnage, We Need to Talk about Kevin, Melancholia, and Take Shelter. Many of this films have praised performances that are perhaps being overlooked here as well and if I had gotten my tush to the movie theater a little more I would've been able to bitch about this properly. None the less, I'll be sure to tune in tonight to see if Billy Crystal is still funny. I think he probably is. 


2 comments:

  1. Just discovered your blog through Erin Red. I have to say, I love it! I spend 90% of my blog time reading food blogs, and this is such a nice change of pace. Congrats on making the vegan switch.

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